Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2

Shaw Capital Management Korea:  World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 The reason seems to be that the operation of the ‘inflation tax’ is arbitrary and therefore seen as unfair—those who pay it are often the most vulnerable—e.g. with pensions invested in government bonds—while those with wealth and good advisors can usually avoid it. Ordinary taxation, however unpopular it may be, can be spread across the populace in a fair way, and so can normal ‘Treasury cuts’, which command wide respect as the only way of checking inevitable bureaucratic waste.

Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of these governments needs to do is put in place a mechanism for the medium term that first brings down the deficit and then ensures that the debt/GDP ratio falls slowly with growth. Meanwhile for some time to come there will be a need for monetary ease as the financial system is nursed back to health; this will keep the financing costs down.

The growth rate of credit to the non-bank private sector remains exceedingly low; while other sources of liquidity have increased as noted earlier, it is still clear that liquidity is not generally available on competitive terms to many small firms and ordinary households.

What has happened so far is that larger firms and wealthier households have benefited from low rates of interest while small firms and poorer households have found it difficult to gain access to finance at all. This is no basis for a modern economy to function well and recover confidently. Yet it is clear that restoring competitive finance when banks have been so damaged will take some time; there is no definite date when one can yet predict it will occur, what with the new capital required, the new procedures to be implemented, the paying-off of government to be done and so forth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 2 of 2 - So what each of Our conclusion is that quantitative easing has worked to partially offset the credit crunch and will continue to be needed as the banking system is rebuilt. Furthermore fiscal policy too will need to be supportive throughout the coming fiscal year, 2010/11—even though a process must be set in place to reduce the public deficit over the following 5 10 years.  The threat posed by the banking crisis was massive and has not gone away; and while it is premature to celebrate, the policy response has so far been effective. It needs to be continued.

Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 1 of 2

World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also

started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth. The most troubling aspect of the recovery in western economies including the UK is the lack of credit growth to the non-bank private sector. However, this has been accompanied by a general easing in monetary conditions, as

measured by other indicators, such as rates of interest on corporate loans and bonds, and the cost of equity capital.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - So it appears that the policy easing carried out by virtually all western central banks has succeeded in offsetting at least much of the effects of the credit crunch created by the banking crisis.

Another feature has been the willingness of western governments to allow their budget balances to move into heavy deficit.

The way to think of this is that governments will eventually have to pay off these deficits by either cutting spending services to the private sector or raising taxes on it. Hence these deficits are loans to the private sector to perform current services or avoid collecting current taxes; these loans will be paid off in the future. The government is effectively giving credit to the private sector that has dried up through the usual channels.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Some people would like to debate whether such government deficits are effective in supporting the economy; however it should be obvious that in a credit crunch all credit provision is likely to be effective in offsetting the credit shortage. One can agree that in normal times deficit multipliers could well be low because rational consumers will work out that they must pay future taxes to pay for the deficits and hence they may well save in response, so offsetting the direct deficit stimulus.

However in a credit crunch this argument is irrelevant because the private sector is liquidity-constrained. So monetary and fiscal policy have both been dominated by the need to provide a substitute for bank credit. They have done so and been rather effective in this.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - As long as the recovery does not raise inflation and require interest rates to rise, and money creation to be stopped and reversed, the government deficits have been costless because financed by money creation at zero interest rate therefore.

The burning question is when is the turning point, when ‘monetary exit’ must be started, turning these deficits into expensive processes that could violate sustainability conditions, and hence precipitating the necessity of fiscal exit also.

From the UK or US perspective there is no real reason to rush to the exit.  Both countries’ public debt/GDP ratios are quite low, in the region of 50 80% respectively. There is no history of outright default, or of refusal to pay taxes. The main issue concerns the possibility of using inflation as a partial default tool.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - In the UK there has been a formal inflation target of 2% or so for 17 years; in the US there is no formal target but a widespread assumption encouraged by the Fed that there effectively is one of the same order. Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

For example to reduce the debt/GDP ratio in the UK back to 40% from its current level of 56% would just require four years of inflation at 6%, only 4% over the target.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Tempting as this might sound, it is striking how little public interest there is in it. Inflation was highly unpopular in both countries when it was out of control in the 1970s and early 1980s; inflation targeting has proved politically successful for this reason.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article - Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Korea - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Export growth is expected to weaken in line with the slowing of world trade and recent strength of the yen. Even the Chinese economy is slowing down. On the other hand, corporate profits have been good, but the appreciation of the yen and stagnation in the domestic market might reduce the appetite of Japanese firms for investment at home. Indeed, private machinery orders, an indicator for capital investment, have been very weak. There are increasing signs that many firms are sending more of their production offshore.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Under these circumstances, the government is reported to have started considering an additional stimulus package to deal with the appreciation of the yen, the decline in stock prices, and deflation.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan will have a talk with State Minister for National Policy Satoshi Arai, Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Masayuki Naoshima on the shape of a new package, which may be announced in early September, according to the press.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Economists and observers criticized the government, and the central bank, for failing to take appropriate measures and urged them to craft bolder policies to decisively face up to the wobbly state of the economy. In particular, they emphasized the importance of preventing any further appreciation of the yen and demanded that the government and the Bank of Japan act first of all to put a brake on the yen’s rise in preparation for the growing fear of a second dip in business.

“The yen’s rise not only squeezes exporters’ profits but also, if left as it is, will encourage manufacturing companies to shift production bases outside Japan, resulting in an irrevocably adverse influence on employment and other segments.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - The Finance Ministry should not hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market”, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. With the currency recently rising to a 15-year high against the US dollar, speculation has increased that Japanese authorities may act soon to slow the surging yen. BOJ officials have opposed the idea of more aggressively using their balance sheet because of worries that it could increase market concerns about Japan’s fiscal discipline and that the anti-deflation drug could prove too effective, causing prices to rise out of control. Many analysts believe that the BOJ will make a move in the foreign exchange market soon.

Shaw Capital Financing on International Purchase Order Financing

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What is purchase order financing?

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Inexperience in generating financing

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Purchase order financing involves issuing letters of credit to suppliers of finished or non-finished goods, based on specific, tangible goods that have been presold to a creditworthy end customer. It can help you deliver on time, increase market share, and grow without selling equity or incurring bank debt. You will need to supply financial information about your company, customer and supplier. We take care of the rest, usually offering approval and getting your short-term funding to you in as little as two weeks. You can use this cash flow management tool to meet future growth opportunities, too -once your account is set up, the process is faster still.

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Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1

Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This represents, however, a striking slowdown from the 0.4% quarterly growth, or annualised 4.4% growth, recorded in the preceding three months. It also fell far short of the median forecast of private-sector economists of annualised 2.3% growth over the preceding period.

Moreover, in nominal terms Japanese GDP has fallen behind China’s: US$1,336.9 billion for China against US$1,288.3 billion for Japan for the quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Looking at individual demand components, the domestic economy was sluggish, with the exception of private capital expenditure. Private non-residential investment grew by 0.5%, almost the same as in the previous quarter, on the back of improved profits. However, private residential and government investment spending declined sharply by 1.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - The contribution of inventories to GDP growth declined by 0.2 points. This is a bit surprising given the acceleration in imports, and might indicate that there is still room for an upward revision of growth at the next release.

Officials were particularly disturbed by the slowdown of personal consumption. Although the growth in consumer spending had been shored up by the government subsidies, such as those for the purchase of energy-efficient cars and the eco-point incentive program for purchasers of eco-friendly home electric appliances, the effects of these policies apparently wore off during the quarter.

The eco-car subsidies and eco-point system are due to end by the end of September and the end of this year respectively. Meanwhile, even though major corporations are awash with cash, they are extremely cautious about capital investment in view of uncertainties about the domestic and overseas economic situation.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Exports, the prime driver of growth, rose 5.9% on strong demand from Europe. But the pace of growth slowed from a 7.0% rise in the previous quarter amid signs of an economic slowdown in China, one of the biggest destinations for Japanese exports.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

We provide the information; insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. For more information on the issues in this newsletter, or for any further information, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article

Shaw Capital Management Korea News Release - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages. World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article  - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter - The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages.

World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

Shaw Capital Management News -Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4

Prospects therefore remain disappointing, and are being made worse by the differences that exist between member countries. The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues to forecast “moderate” growth and “moderate” inflation; but it is being severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilise other member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability and growth prospects of the entire area.

It is not surprising therefore that investors and speculators have started to reduce their exposure to the euro.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The critical question therefore is whether the fall of the euro is now over. Since the currency is unlikely to receive any real support from the general background situation in the euro-zone, everything depends on the developing debt situation, and particularly on the situation in Greece; and also on the possibility of support operations from stronger member countries and from the European Central Bank, and the European Commission. The situation remains uncertain. The central bank appears to be reluctant to offer help, and the German government, which might have been expected to become involved, has also made no response so far.

Shaw Capital Management News - But the European Commission has endorsed the latest plans by the Greek government to introduce an across-the-board freeze on public sector wages and cuts in allowances that are expected to reduce the overall public sector wage bill by around 4%.

This may encourage support from elsewhere; however the Commission has warned that it will not tolerate any slippage from the target and will if necessary demand tougher action from the government to ensure that it stays on course.

But it is far from clear that the Greek government can obtain the necessary support in parliament even for the present proposed measures, and so the uncertainty will continue.

It is therefore likely that there will be further falls in the euro over the coming weeks.

Sterling has improved slightly over the past month, helped by the weakness of the euro.

Shaw Capital Management News - The background situation in the UK remains unattractive, and there have already been threats that its AAA credit rating is at risk unless there are credible measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election is over.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The European Central Bank therefore faces a difficult situation. It continues to forecast “moderate” growth and “moderate” inflation; but it is being severely criticised for failing to address the problems of a two-speed economy, and for its unwillingness so far to face the threat that the deteriorating situation in Greece could quickly begin to destabilize other member countries and have serious consequences for the financial stability and growth prospects of the entire area.

But the UK is not constrained by membership of the European single currency system, and so there is no immediate risk of a default on its sovereign debts.

It has therefore been able to benefit from the problems affecting some other European countries.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - The latest figures from the Office of National Statistics indicate that the UK just managed to move out of recession in the final quarter of last year. The estimate of growth of only 0.1% in the quarter was a considerable disappointment, and it is expected that it will be revised higher; but clearly the economy is not performing very well.

Government spending remains strong and there was a surge in retail sales in the run-up to Christmas; but the anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers became much more cautious again in January.

The latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England was concerned by the poor reaction so far to the dramatic measures that have been introduced to counter the recession, and reacted to this situation by leaving UK base rates unchanged once again at 0.5%.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - It clearly has no intention of moving to an “exit strategy” until there is convincing evidence that a sustainable recovery in the economy is underway.

It did announce that purchases of market securities under the quantitative easing programme would now be discontinued after the £200 billion target has been reached; but its main priority is to continue to provide support for the fragile economic recovery.

Fiscal policy is also likely to remain unchanged until after the election, because the necessary measures to reduce the huge deficit will be unpopular, and might influence the outcome of that election.

Sterling is therefore receiving no real support from the domestic background situation, and in other circumstances might have been expected to move lower.

Shaw Capital Management News - Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 4: - But the problems affecting the other major global currencies, and particularly the problems affecting the euro, have at least delayed any further falls. The yen has improved over the past month, despite a generally unfavourable domestic background situation, and some attempts by the Japanese authorities to prevent its appreciation against other currencies.

It has achieved an enhanced “safe haven” status in the current storm in the currency markets, and on the back of the relative success of its exports. But conditions in the Japanese economy remain very weak, and there has even been the threat of a downgrade of its credit rating unless measures are introduced to reduce its massive fiscal deficit.

However it does not appear that this threat will prevent the new Japanese government from introducing further measures to stimulate the economy, and urging the Bank of Japan to intervene in the markets to weaken the yen, and so its prospects remain very uncertain.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management

The recent State of the Union message to Congress by President Obama included a request for the approval of a further fiscal stimulus package this year amounting to around $100 billion to help to tackle the unemployment problem, and he has also presented a $3.8 trillion budget for fiscal 2011 that is likely to maintain the overall deficit around the $1.35 trillion level expected this year.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management - Much will depend on the attitude of overseas holders, and especially on the attitude of the Chinese and Japanese authorities. For the present they seem to be prepared to maintain and even increase their dollar exposure; and if this continues, and the problems of other major currencies remain unresolved, it should be enough to allow the dollar to “improve”. The euro struggled to recover in the early part of January from the big fall that occurred in December; but the recovery did not last very long, and it has subsequently fallen sharply again, to leave it value against the dollar around 10% below the level in early- December.

There has been no significant change in the underlying economic background, although there is some evidence that the fragile recovery that was developing is losing some momentum.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010 Part 3: Shaw Capital Management Korea - But there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as the fears have increased that Greece and some other periphery countries in the euro-zone may be unable to fund their massive fiscal deficits, and service their sovereign debts. There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.

The present lack of urgency at the central bank and amongst the key politicians suggests that this trend will continue, and that the euro will fall still further; but there is still some hope that the seriousness of the situation will finally produce a support operation that will ease the situation.

Shaw Capital Management News - All the available evidence continues to point to a slow, two-speed recovery in the euro-zone economy. Germany and France appear to be performing reasonably well, although there are some signs of slowdown in Germany; but Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and even Italy are struggling to escape from recession, and are expected to keep overall output in the euro-zone this year around the 1% level.

Shaw Capital Management News - There is also considerable uncertainty about the intentions of the European Central Bank and the stronger countries if conditions continue to worsen, and so overseas holders have started to withdraw funds from the European capital markets to await developments.

Retail sales remain depressed, and fell by 1.2% between October and November to reflect the continuing caution of consumers; and industrial orders in Germany rose by much less than expected in November, after a very disappointing result in October, to indicate some weakness in export prospects that had been expected to provide significant momentum to the economy.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management

The main feature of the foreign exchange markets over the past month has been the further sharp fall in the euro. There has been no real change in the background economic situation in the euro-zone; but there has been a serious deterioration in the financial background as doubts have increased about the ability of Greece and some other periphery countries to cope with their massive fiscal deficits and service their sovereign debts.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management Korea: This is clearly leading to a withdrawal of international funds from the European capital markets, and is dramatically illustrated in the widening of yield spreads in the bond markets of member countries. There is still a general assumption that the stronger members will provide support for the weaker members if this proves to be necessary to prevent a default on sovereign debts.

But the uncertainties have been increased by conflicting statements from the European Central Bank and some politicians about the willingness to undertake such operations, and so investors and speculators have taken evasive action, and the euro has fallen by around 10% from its peak in early-December.

This fall has provided support for the other major world currencies, including the dollar; but the background situations in Japan, and in the UK, also provide reasons for concern, and so the currency markets remain in a very uncertain state.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - It is likely that the uncertainty will continue. The US economy is clearly recovering from recession; economic conditions in Japan are very weak, and Japan appears to face the possibility of a credit downgrade if it does not take steps to reduce its massive fiscal deficit; and there have already been warnings from Standard and Poor’s that the UK also faces the possibility of a credit downgrade if there are no convincing measures to reduce its huge fiscal deficit after the forthcoming general election. Prospects are therefore very difficult to assess; but our tentative conclusion is that the dollar will continue to “improve”, helped to a considerable extent by weaknesses elsewhere; and that this will allow market pressures to gradually subside as the global economic recovery continues through the year.

But the possibility of a major currency crisis cannot be ignored, especially if the debt problems in Greece and other periphery countries threaten to lead to the break-up of the single currency system in Europe. It is fortunate therefore that the available evidence on the performance of the US economy is more encouraging. Non-farm payrolls fell again in December by 85,000, but are expected to have increased in January; retail sales held up well in the pre-Christmas period; manufacturing output is improving, according to the latest report from the Institute of Supply Management; and even the housing market appears to be recovering.

This general situation is reflected in the first preliminary estimate from the Commerce Department of growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5.7% in the final quarter of last year, a higher figure than the market had been expecting. Most economists therefore appear to be forecasting overall growth this year in the 2.5% to 3% range, after the estimated fall of 2.4% last year.

Foreign Exchange Markets 2010: Shaw Capital Management - The Fed is clearly in no hurry to tighten its present monetary stance. The statement after the latest meeting of its Open Market Committee was more upbeat about the prospects for the economy; but shortterm interest rates were left unchanged and close to zero, and there was a clear indication that they would remain at very low levels “for an extended period”.

The bank did state that it will discontinue most of its emergency lending programmes, and that it would end its purchases of mortgage securities in March; but there was no indication that it would be prepared to implement an “exit strategy” until there was convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. It is also unlikely that there will be any early changes in fiscal policy.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.

“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”

“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Shaw Capital Management March Newsletter: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Shaw Capital Management: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year: Shaw Capital Management News

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating. “The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.” “Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note.

“It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points.

 At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP. “At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour. More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers. “Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before takingeffect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.